Speculation: Fantoni-Nunes will be off the Italian team?

As I'm starting to write this I'm watching the Lavazza team play in the last round of the International Teams Tournament Monte-Carlo 2008 - the Italian pairs are:

Duboin-Sementa
Bocchi-Madala

This was a swing against the Italians:

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After a spade lead, Madala declarer took the heart finesse, which lost, and was down one, for -13 IMPs. In the other room North opened 3NT gambling, passed out, and Sementa led the jack of diamonds - declarer took the top diamonds, the spade king, and then knocked out the club ace.

Maria Teresa Lavazza is the manager of Italy's top squad ("Commissario Tecnico") and essentially calls the shots - as the primary sponsor, she decides who gets paid to play - the Italian team that won the 2008 World Championships are professional players, and the way the Italian squad works is it has 6 pros and the sponsor is the Captain (or NPC: Non-Playing Captain). US squads often have 5 pros and the client (another term for sponsor), where the client plays with one of the pros.

Meanwhile in the "White House" 7th European Bridge Champions' Cup we have the defending champion Angelini team with these Italian players:

Fantoni-Nunes
Lauria-Versace
Angelini

While Versace normally plays with Lauria, as I'm writing this section, he's playing with Angelini, and the German squad has just scored 39 unanswered IMPs against the Italians. One of the biggest swings so far was:

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In this room Angelini led a fourth best spade. When Versace, West, got in on the first diamond, he switched to a club, won by the queen, and declarer cashed two diamonds and knocked out the heart ace to make 10 tricks. In the other room Piekarek led the club ten (auction by Nunes-Fantoini was 1D-2NT;-3NT, their 2NT was a game force with a 5 card major, any 5332), and 3NT had no play.

To best understand the Italian version of musical chairs read this BBO forum thread:
http://forums.bridgebase.com/index.php?showtopic=26120

The short version of this is:

- Angelini is also a major sponsor of Italian bridge, but loves to play (like most of the US clients, and players in general - from the last post compare the number who watch a vugraph to those who play)
- Fantoni-Nunes were taken off the Italian team for the 2008 European Champions (in Pau), and replaced by Angelini-Sementa, who were ineffectual.
- Pau was the last major event for the Duboin-Bocchi, who had decided to split up as a partnership.
- For the 08 Worlds, Duboin played with Sementa, Fantoni-Nunes were added back on to the team, and Bocchi stayed home.

The last board of the segment gave a chance for the Germans to overtake the Italians again:

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Gromoller led the spade 6, Versace ducked in dummy (see Billy Eisenberg's Bols Tip "Play low from dummy": http://www.haroldschogger.com/play_low_from_dummy.htm), and Kirmse played the spade king instead of the ten - now the queen could be ruffed out and the slam made.

A few years ago the Italians imported Argentinean whiz-kid Agustin Madala to their country, where he has been mentored and coached by the top Italian players, and the Bocchi-Madala partnership is now ready to represent the Italians at the top levels.

This means that Maria Teresa Lavazza can pick any 3 partnerships from this mix, if she continues on as Commissario Tecnico:

Bocchi-Madala
Duboin-Sementa
Fantoni-Nunes
Lauria-Versace

Let's look at how captain Lavazza used Fantoni-Nunes in the 08 World Championships:

In the Finals Fantoni-Nunes only were in for segments 1,2 & 4 of the 6 - Lauria-Versace played all but segment 2, Duboin-Sementa played 2, 3, 5 & 6 - thus Lavazza used Fantoni-Nunes the least of her pairs, started them early in the final, but didn't play them late.

In the semi-finals Lavazza used Fantoni-Nunes more, but the match had gotten away from the Norway.

In the tough quarter final match against Poland, Lavazza used Fantoni-Nunes in segments 1, 2, 4 & 5.

This use-early, bench-late configuration for Fantoni-Nunes, has me speculating that Lavazza likes her other pairs better, and I think we may see the Lavazza team partnership of Bocchi-Madala replace Fantoni-Nunes for the 09 Worlds.

I had been looking at the Fantoni-Nunes record for their 10-13 (or so) two bids - I wanted to know how it worked for them when they opened at their table (say with a 10 count), and the other table passed. What I found was, in the 08 Worlds vugraph records, that all hands Fantoni-Nunes opened at the two level were opened at the other table at some level (mostly at the one level). Their two-of-a-minor bids did not generate much IMPs, while the two-of-a-major bids were involved in some swings, the majority for the Italians.

I'll miss their two-bids if Fantoni-Nunes don't get to play in the 09 Worlds.