Playing with the house's money

In the last two rounds of the sectional pairs last night I took shots on the last 6 boards. These were not psyches but just anti-field positions, mostly playing notrump instead of investigating for suit contracts, or over-competing.

On a 8 top, our last 6 scores were: 2, 2, .5, 0, 6, 0.

3NT going down with 4M cold was awful on three boards, and going down 2 vulnerable in 3M instead of letting their 3m contract make was bad on two boards. The 6 was a 3M on a 5-2 that came in on a mis-defend. If I played right down-the-line, our scores would have likely been, based on the results of the other tables: 3.5, 3.5, 4.5, 4.5, 2.5 , 4

Thus 22.5 instead of 10.5. The final score then would have been 123 and 57% instead of 111 and 51%. 51% got 0 masterpoints, while 57% would have good 3rd in the section for .84 masterpoints, but nothing overall (bottom overall was 58%).

This was not exactly playing with the house's money, where heads you win, tails you break even, but it was close to it. I ended up throwing away .84 masterpoints. However let's examine if this is the day where 3NT makes, while 4M can't do better. The last 6 results could have been:
7, 2, 7, 0, 6, 7.

On two boards, the 2 and 0, the cows aren't coming home (the 3M over-compete doesn't work), but the other 4 boards are a charm.

The net result is 29, and a final score of 129.5, good for 3rd overall and 4.22 masterpoints. Thus I was risking .84 masterpoints (which I ended up losing for our partnership) to gain 4.22. Those are odds well worth taking.

In online tournaments, where one can see a running score, if you are just sitting around average heading in the final round, you can take your shots on improving the score. If they don't work, it costs nothing. If they work, you improve into the points. Tails you break even, heads you win.
In live bridge, like last night, you can take shots if you estimate well. The overall is where the glory is, so if one is running a game just above average, make some moves at getting in there. At worse, you cough up a fraction of a masterpoint. At best, you win the whole thing. Was that possible last night? Yes, 135.5 won the whole thing, so if we were really fortunately last night on 5 of the 6 boards (convert the 0 to a 7 to get 7, 2, 7, 7, 6, 7) we would have ended at 136. Thus making those coin flips could have paid off big time.

Take some risks at the end of an event if you need to do so to move into the overalls (or in an online tourney without overalls, to move into the points). It is a lose-little, gain-big gamble.